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ONCHAIN FX is a research and operating notebook about markets, capital,

technology and Brazil.

I write from the operator's side of the table. Not as a commentator watching

the industry from outside it. As someone who has moved money through

Brazil's banking, FX and payments systems, built the systems that price and

route it, and is now investing around where that world is going next.

This site follows a small set of living theses. It is not a news feed, and

it does not update because something happened somewhere. It updates when I

have something new to say about one of the seven questions below.

The seven theses

Brazil Risk

Brazil risk is not sovereign spread. It is not political risk in the way

that phrase usually gets used. It is the operational, regulatory and

informational friction of actually moving money through the country. That

friction is also where the return is.

Anchor: *What does it actually cost to move $10 million through Brazil?*

Latest: *What Brazil Risk actually means when you are moving real money*

Watching: how BCB's consolidation of VASP and payment institution rules

plays out through 2026.

Digital FX / Money as Software

Stablecoins and digital FX matter beyond crypto because money is becoming

programmable, portable, API-native, always on, and globally routable. The

economics underneath it still depend entirely on banking, liquidity,

jurisdiction and compliance. Both things are true at once.

Anchor: *How stablecoins are transforming international FX*

Latest: *When dollars become software*

Watching: on/off-ramp volume between USD stablecoins and BRL, and whether it

becomes citable with real numbers.

Market Infrastructure

Every market runs on systems most participants never see: price discovery,

order books, clearing, collateral, settlement, oracles. Whether a market

thesis is real or a narrative usually comes down to whether you understand

those systems.

Anchor: *Hyperliquid, energy and the next market infrastructure*

Latest: *What market infrastructure actually does*

Watching: whether tokenized power markets move from thesis to functioning

infrastructure.

Market Notes

A price is not a number. It is a venue, a timestamp, a size, a liquidity

condition and a settlement path. The distance between a reference price and

an executable one is where real cost and real risk live.

Anchor: *Teaching a machine what BRL looks like*

Latest: *The executable price is the market*

Watching: how much of BRL price formation can be observed, rather than

assumed, by a machine.

Operating Notes

A database tells you what is stored. It does not tell you what is happening,

or what should happen next. Turning information into an operating system,

for a company or for an AI, takes authority, identity, memory, tools and

human gates. Not just data.

Anchor: *The database is not the operating system*

Latest: *What an AI needs before you let it operate*

Watching: what breaks first when an AI is given real operating authority.

CFO Studies

Moving serious capital through Brazil is a route problem before it is a rate

problem. A CFO needs a map of capital, banking, FX, treasury, liquidity and

settlement before comparing spreads.

Anchor: *What does it actually cost to move $10 million through Brazil?*

Latest: *A CFO's map of Brazil: capital, FX, liquidity and settlement*

Watching: how Pix settlement mechanics interact with treasury operations at

real scale.

Investment Notebook

AI is moving from software that assists people to software that operates

parts of economic systems. This series follows where value accumulates

across compute, models, data, agents, economic rails and physical AI, and

tries to make the thesis auditable instead of promotional. The word

"Portfolio" in these titles is not evidence of a holding.

Anchor: *When AI stops being software and starts operating*

Latest: *AI Portfolio 002: Compute*

Watching: whether inference cost curves keep falling fast enough to change

who captures the value.

Not here yet, on purpose

Business & Management and Books/Letters/Learning remain real ideas for the

future. Neither has enough real work behind it yet to earn a place here.

When something real exists, it will show up. Until then, this page will not

pretend it does.

Latest Research

The most recent piece across all seven domains lives at the top of the

publication feed. This page is the map; the feed is the current edge.

Newsletter

Subscribe to ONCHAIN FX to follow the theses as they evolve, in English

or Portuguese.